Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise Further in August 2026

Full analysis

NerdWallet's mortgage reporter Kate Wood predicts rates will move higher in August, driven primarily by the ongoing war in Iran, which has disrupted global trade, raised oil prices, and stoked inflation fears. When investors worry about inflation, they demand higher returns on bonds, and because mortgage lenders benchmark their rates to the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, those higher bond yields push mortgage rates up alongside them. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged around 6.49–6.54% in June and 6.50–6.54% in July depending on the data source, and further increases are expected unless the conflict ends decisively. For buyers aged 50 or older considering a move, refinance, or downsizing purchase, the article notes that less competition from fence-sitters and improved inventory in some markets (notably Colorado, Washington, and Tennessee) may offer some negotiating leverage — though the Northeast remains difficult.