Update: Social Security Trust Fund May Run Short by 2032

Full analysis

What's new since we last covered this: Trust fund depletion date moved up by one year due to 2025 tax legislation.

The Social Security trustees had projected the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund would run dry in 2033, but the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — factoring in the revenue effects of 2025 tax legislation — has moved that date up to 2032, matching the Congressional Budget Office's projection. When the fund is exhausted, benefits are not eliminated: under current law they are automatically cut to whatever ongoing payroll taxes can support, estimated at roughly 77% to 81% of scheduled benefits — a reduction of about 19% to 23%. Congress is expected to act before allowing the automatic cut to take effect, but probably not until 2030–2032 at the earliest.